The identifiable structural forces are rather inflationary:
Global trade in goods is stalling (it has been stagnant for several years), suggesting that the disinflationary gains from growing global trade and the breakup of value chains, which were drivers of growth and cost moderation in past decades, will not be repeated.
Labor was a plentiful commodity in past decades: demographics are changing. This factor will become scarcer, which argues for less wage moderation in the future.
Global warming is proving to be faster than predicted by IPCC members; this results in an increase in damage caused by the multiplication of extreme climatic events which implies an increase in the price of insurance as well as an increase in adaptation expenses (this is a singapore phone number list negative supply shock).
The energy and ecological transition is accelerated by the recent energy shock and the search for sovereignty. The production of green energy consumes more metals than that of brown energy, so that the equilibrium prices of certain raw materials will be structurally higher. Note that the Banque de France, for annual inflation in 2027 (1.9%), is counting in its projections published in December ( link ) on a rebound of +0.2 points compared to 2026: it notes that "energy prices would temporarily accelerate due to the extension to other emitting sectors of the CO2 emission permit market . This impact, still uncertain, will depend on the terms of its implementation and could be limited by compensatory measures", which leads it to project inflation at 2.2% over one year in the 4th quarter of 2027.
Potential disinflationary factors exist but seem less promising: they are based, for example, on productivity gains that could result from the penetration of AI in economies, from changes in the labor market (cohort of apprentices who will be better trained and more productive, acceleration of continuing education with My Training Account) or even from regulation, the desire for simplification and taking the "right risk" being able to ease constraints.